Rob,

You certainly have taken an analytical approach to this problem and if you where trying to diagnose and treat a problem that was not so deadly in nature I would probably agree with you.

For me this is not a question of probabilities one way or the other where the outcome can result in an unpleasant result. This is a case where worst-case scenario is death. If you make the wrong bet, you might just pay with your life. I would approach this question as one in which I was trying to avoid the worst case outcome.

Kelly