So let's have a reality check here. Numbers. 300 million people in the US. 37,000 this year got oral cancers. About 50% of those were caused by HPV16. This virus is one of the most common viruses groups (130 versions - 9 cause cancer and 6 more are suspect of doing so because they are often found with the oncogenic ones, but do not appear to do it alone) out there, it's certainly the most common sexually transferred infection of all according to the CDC. There will be about 3700 deaths from cervical cancer, 8-9k from oral. It also causes anal, and penis cancers, which have really low incidence and death rates. (Not to many people die from penis cancer... they see the problem early and they just lop that puppy off..ouch) So when we speak of risks, we really should add them all up, not just oral. Even if you do that, with this common very ubiquitous virus, 99.9% of the population has an immune system that recognizes it as a threat and in some period of time between 2 months and 14 months clears it from your system. (This is based on the cervical experience not oral, but we suspect it is the same or faster in the mouth as the cells of the oral cavity turn over and are replaced faster there than just about anywhere in the body through apoptosis.) So who has a calculator out there and wants to figure out your odds?

Some of us (me) have immune systems, and a genetic profile I can thank my grandparents for, that does not recognize HPV16 as a threat, and I don't clear it. My wife has a more robust system. But those of us that the virus persists in for protracted periods of time (the real risk), are a small minority of the population. We just finished a study with Gillison and NCI soon to be published, and this virus is going to rapidly increase in incidence of disease in the next 5 years, particularly oral cancers. Big Time. This is a math problem not a sex (change your behavior) problem, and we can do nothing about what is coming down the pike today. The only thing that we can do is see that the vaccine is used on our kids so the next generation deals with a reservoir of the virus that is significantly smaller, and get screened routinely to catch very early stage disease. Yes, the vaccine is for cervical cancer, but the net of it is that it prevents you from getting infected period. Even just considering cervical cancer, men are vectors of the virus to women, so they need to be injected too. Then the incidence of oral cancers will begin to decline and go back to the lifestyle choice etiologies like smoking. Remember there is no such thing as a viracide, so we can't kill it with some outside intervention. It has to be done by our normal immune responses. If we could kill viruses, we could cure the common cold, which is a virus.

So now one of you Google fans.... Please post how many people in the US are hit by lightening, have a catastrophic reaction to peanuts or bee stings, or are bitten by sharks, etc. and things we think are rare. Let's put the HPV issue in a context that we all can relate to. Also find out how many people die in car accidents every year in the US, or perhaps just in California. When someone does, let's see what those odds are and look at things with a balanced eye. Don't forget Charm's favorite thing to say which is - if it happens to you the chances were 100%..... 300 million people - let's do the math.