I have heard from my doctors that given my type and stage of cancer that they quote a "30 to 50% chance of surviving 2 to 5years".

When considering this as a potential reality I am familiar with the concept that these tables are averages and that everyone is different. But, how do you interpret those numbers?

That there is only a 30% chance of surviving more than 2 years. And at best, a 50% chance of surviving 5 years or more?

Hi Dave, If you read all the posts on this board everyone says not to believe or concentrate on the numbers. They lump all people in those stat's including old people, people who continue to smoke etc. You are one person and if they operate and use radiation to clean up the area your chances are much higher. There are alot of people that use this forum who have survived longer than 5 years. Take one day at a time and enjoy your life. Dan

Hi Dave,
I have 2 different theories on this. Theory #1 -You are not a statistic until you are dead and at that time it won't matter (at least not to YOU anyway).

You've got the numbers backwards - there is a 30% chance of dying in the 2nd year and 50% by the 5th year. I'll take the "other" 50% thank you very much.

Theory #2 -All the people out there with bad health habits, who refuse to quit drinking, smoking, chewing or abusing substances, etc. are making y(our) numbers look better (God bless 'em). Of course age and genetics are a factor - 25% of us never drank or smoked.

Remember also that the data is dated and not indicative of current, state of the art treatment(s).

You can improve your odds more by getting treatment at a comprehensive cancer center. They told me 70+% chance of 5 year survival. Some doctors will routinely give you the worst case numbers.

The odds actually get worse as time goes by?? I would have thought it to be the opposite..??

Then by 10yr.s the odds would be...? 80%...Say it ain't so!

Hi Dave,
Yes they do but remember the older you get the more the odds go up - life IS a terminal illness.

Recurrence is the bane of this disease. That's why constant monitoring is critical. There are many factors that contribute to a poor survival rate: Late diagnosis, poor health habits, age, even race (African Americans have a higher death rate than Caucasions), among others. Poor tolerance to treatment, having to stop and restart treatment, multiple tumor sites or metastesis are all factors my oncologist told me about that have an influence on the survival rate.

I believe that the numbers level off in the 5th year. I haven't seen any data to imply that the 10 year survival rate is only 20%. I don't believe it's a linear curve. I have met people with 9 or more years of survival (even my own mother) and I aspire to be one of them.

Dump the numbers - they'll just make you crazy and give you fuel for a pity party.

Hi Dave,

The numbers are a "no win" thing for your mind.
First, of all neither you nor your doctors know what your personal outcome will be. I seems dr's have an urge to tell you something so they resort to statistics that are fine for a group or for discussions of what treatments work. These numbers are virtually meaningless for you. How will you survive 30%? (or 50% or 75%). The simple fact is you either survive this cancer(100%) or you don't (0%). You might choose treatments based on the survival statistics, but you can't know the outcome, only time will tell.

Imagine this: if some one was to bet you $1 on a coin toss you might say sure 50/50 (50%) isn't such a bad deal you might win so you go for it.
You might agree for say even $100 or $1000 but at some dollar amount you will hesitate $10,000 for instance. Even though the odds are the same as the $1 bet. A lot of us seem to reach a point where the mind sees nothing but the chance of loosing and then gets a distorted view. The chance of loosing becomes overwhelming.

With this cancer we now have everything on the bet. We tend to have a problem seeing that there is a pretty good chance the disease is cured after the treatments are complete. Just as in the coin toss there are winners, there are survivors even if the odds are not in the high numbers.

Yes this is a life threat, it is real and you might die from it. On the other hand you might live a long life without any other problems or get hit by a bus two hours from now. The difference is not about the survival but in how you live in the mean time. Every moment is a gift and it has been that way since you were born. Now you have a sharp awareness of that fact and you are still living! Isn't that a joy?

Stop worrying and start living. Don't look so far ahead, you never have been able to see the future so don't try now. Just live for now, this moment, today and enjoy it. Sure get your will updated, do the things you always wanted to do. Simplify your life, refuse stress, tell the people you love what you feel. And practice not worrying! As Gary said "life is terminal" so make good use of it.

I have a post script to the above for the numbers junkie out there. My ENT said 65-75% 5 year survival, My radiation Onc. said 95% chance it will not come back in the radiated area.

The rate of reocurrance is higher in the first 2 years. My ENT told me 85 to 95% of reoccurances happen within 2 years. The number of reoccurances diminish over time until at 5 years the statistical odds of a reoccurance is about the same a for people getting the cancer at all. The reality is people get it back. Some people live past 5 years and still get it back. Some of those will die from it. There is no magical time when you are certain it is a complete cure. Over time it becomes easier to live with that reality. Eventually you won't hardly think about it.

I mention these things not to be depressing but to re-enforce my comments above. Live for today, over and over and over.....

Here !!! Here!!! Mark... Love the betting analogy.

Dinah

I always thought that after we were cancer free for 5 years, we were considered to be cured and the chance for a reoccurence of the same cancer unlikely, assuming we gave up our bad habits. Insurance companies will even sell us insurance after 5 years and that is a statistic I will believe in. They are not out to lose money.

Eileen

Yes as I stated: "The number of reoccurances diminish over time until at 5 years the statistical odds of a reoccurance is about the same a for people getting the cancer at all".

Unfortunately this does not mean you are immune from a return after 5 years. The reoccurance rate if graphed would be something like a bell curve. The far end of that curve goes out several years beyond 5 years. Stastically 5 years is great...but but the statistics, I wasn't supposed to get this at my age at all...