PERFECT on so many levels. Brian's link to NYT explicating MSG's Black Swan reference has the quintessential quote on what makes this forum so different: "...If you want to get an idea of a friend's temperament, ethics, and personal elegance, you need to look at him under the tests of severe circumstances, not under the regular rosy glow of daily life. " Plus I now have yet another answer and one which let's me drop an intellectual reference [the theory started with John Stuart Mill in the 1800s] (assuring my friends that I'm truly back)that also has received recent mainstream media popularity [Taleb's book]and has the added bonus of being explainable in pop culture terms ("You know, like in the X-Files")