I'm a bit like you. I probably read just about every stat I could find. I want to know the good, the bad and the ugly. It is difficult to get an exact figure, as you probably know better then me, due to many different factors like stage, even if stage 4, then is a,b,c, then the TNM, and they don't account for tumor thickness, nodes, ECE, PNI, LVI, and some are outdated figures, etc. etc, but you're on the right tract in the 40% range, non HPV, HPV positive changed everything. I even read 38% for oropharyngeal cancer 5 year rate at one time. I think I stopped researching, rather looking into, when I was down to the low teens, even 9%, figuring I could go no lower. I couldn't keep tract with all my different recurrences, treatments, and one of my surgeons said, I'm out of the medical books now.

Even though I knew some of the numbers, I never asked my doctors what my odds were, and they never said either. I guess they have no cystal ball. I don't know why, maybe since I don't ask many wether I can do something or not. I just do it, and figured if they were doing curative treatments my odds were still high. Only twice was I really given stats without asking, that was before and after. My ENT gave me informed consent to the risk of surgery, pre-op, which turned out to be 20-25% lower than my own findings, so was relieved about that lol. Then my RO gave me the risk of death having more radiation, 17% vs 70% of cancer returning by not doing anything. I told him more like 100% and then dying anyway with my background, and can probably figure which I chose.

The other thing with stats I look at is the positivity too. All our treatments, surgery, radiation and chemo are based on stats, and we follow them. I guess the ones which worked out best. It's a double edged sword.

I don't think I have any stats on file per say, but their out there. SEERS doesn't account for HPV, maybe only recently, and they are only from 9 different U.S. locations, but looked at them too, different abstracts, studies, and come up with all sorts of numbers. They include them anyway.

Good luck.